Tax and spend

Florida's Democratic candidate for governor, Gillum, claims that he will institute free healthcare for all, by adopting Bernie Sanders' "Medicare for all" plan. Just what would such a plan cost, and how would Floridians pay for it? Fortunately, we have a plan in place for some Floridians, and we know how much that plan costs: Medicaid.

4.3 million people are on Medicaid in Florida. The state of Florida pays 39% of the cost of this plan, which costs the state $21.8 billion. That number represents 32% of the state budget.

In order for the state to have "Medicare for all" the Federal government will not be picking up a portion of the tab, meaning that Floridians would have to cover 100% of the cost of covering the other 17 million people in Florida. This would cost somewhere in the neighborhood of $265 billion. In order to afford such a plan would mean the state budget would have to increase from $68 to $302 billion, and Medicare/medicaid would be three quarters of that.

Where would the extra money come from? Gillum claims that he would get that money by increasing the corporate tax by 40%, from its current level of 5.5% to 7.5%. According to poitifact, the 5.5% corporate tax brings $2 billion a year. Increasing that tax by 40% would mean that the state of Florida add another $800 million to the state's coffers, even assuming that no businesses leave the state because of the new taxes. 

This additional $800 in tax revenue would still leave the state with a $233 billion shortfall. Even if Florida doubled its sales tax to 12%, this would only give the state an additional $30.5 billion, leaving the state with a $200 billion shortfall. The only way that the state could come up with this kind of money would be to institute a state income tax. Even doubling the state sales tax would require a 25% income tax on all income above $20,000 in order to make the numbers work.

No other source of tax revenue could come close to making this plan possible, and there is no state legislator who is stupid enough to propose that. This is probably the reason why Gillum wants to ban most guns, because he would have much to fear if he tried.