There are two camps in this nation. Some believe that people are individuals, each responsible for their own actions. A police officer who abuses that should be tried in a court of law, and be punished for anything that he may be guilty of, and set free if found not guilty.
The other camp believes that any part of the process that doesn't go their way is evidence that the system is broken. The only result they will accept is complete surrender. They are willing to commit acts of violence to achieve that goal. Anyone who defends themselves, or even injures someone while escaping the mobs intent on killing them should be imprisoned or killed. They will accept nothing short of surrender.
These two camps are completely incompatible. The only good news here is that the riots for the most part appear to be the result of financing and organization from an outside party. Pallets of bricks being delivered to street corners in advance of protests, people caught on video paying agitators. Hopefully, this is the same thing that happens every election year, and it stops when the election is over.
I have one of two fears:
1 The amount of violence is dependent upon the LEAST stable person there. Sooner or later, a person will do a mag dump into a crowd, and things will escalate beyond anyone's control.
2 The funding and organization will stop after the election, but it will be too late: the point of critical mass will have been surpassed, and the violence will continue to escalate.
Keep preparing, keep stockpiling, keep out of the way. By all means, stay away from protests.
Sunday, May 31, 2020
Wayne, to answer your question
Wayne raises a great question in comments. He wanted to know about George Floyd's criminal history. I went looking for the answer, and I did find it after some time, but it was difficult because the story from Minneapolis is overshadowing Floyd's history. I finally resorted to a search of Texas criminal records. Wayne asks:
So here is the story:
Keep in mind that Floyd would have turned 18 in October of 1991. Therefore, no criminal history would be available before that year, if indeed there was one.
He was arrested in 1997 for delivery of a controlled substance and received a sentence of six months in jail.
Floyd served ten months in prison stemming from a charge of aggravated robbery with a firearm in August 1998 (pictured) after a plea agreement to reduce it to "theft from person"
While he was awaiting trial for that one, he was again arrested for theft in December of 1998 and was sentenced for 10 days.
In 2001, he was sentenced to 10 days for failure to identify himself.
In April of 2002, he was convicted of criminal trespass and received 30 days for that.
In 2003, he served 30 days for trespassing in a structure, then later that year served eight months in prison for possession of cocaine stemming from an arrest in October of 2002. This was followed by ten more months in prison in 2004, after he was again arrested for possession of cocaine.
Then in 2005, Floyd was sentenced to 10 months in state jail for possession of cocaine, after being arrested for distributing cocaine and getting it reduced to simple possession in a plea bargain.
Floyd served five years in prison from 2009 to 2014 for second conviction for aggravated assault stemming from a robbery in 2007 where he entered a woman’s home, pressed a gun into her stomach and searched the home for drugs and money.
For the seventeen year period spanning 1997 to 2014, Floyd spent at least half of his time in prison. The majority of the remaining time was spent on pretrial release. Here is the record from just the one county in Texas that I searched (Harris).
He was also arrested under several aliases, but I thought I had a clear picture and didn't feel like searching them. You can if you want.
Granted, his history is not admissible in court, but it certainly paints a clear picture of who he was. Now there are plenty who are claiming that he was "turning his life around," but you will excuse me if I say that I have heard that song before.
Career criminal with a history of street drug use? Got a source for that?
So here is the story:
Keep in mind that Floyd would have turned 18 in October of 1991. Therefore, no criminal history would be available before that year, if indeed there was one.
He was arrested in 1997 for delivery of a controlled substance and received a sentence of six months in jail.
Floyd served ten months in prison stemming from a charge of aggravated robbery with a firearm in August 1998 (pictured) after a plea agreement to reduce it to "theft from person"
While he was awaiting trial for that one, he was again arrested for theft in December of 1998 and was sentenced for 10 days.
In 2001, he was sentenced to 10 days for failure to identify himself.
In April of 2002, he was convicted of criminal trespass and received 30 days for that.
In 2003, he served 30 days for trespassing in a structure, then later that year served eight months in prison for possession of cocaine stemming from an arrest in October of 2002. This was followed by ten more months in prison in 2004, after he was again arrested for possession of cocaine.
Then in 2005, Floyd was sentenced to 10 months in state jail for possession of cocaine, after being arrested for distributing cocaine and getting it reduced to simple possession in a plea bargain.
Floyd served five years in prison from 2009 to 2014 for second conviction for aggravated assault stemming from a robbery in 2007 where he entered a woman’s home, pressed a gun into her stomach and searched the home for drugs and money.
For the seventeen year period spanning 1997 to 2014, Floyd spent at least half of his time in prison. The majority of the remaining time was spent on pretrial release. Here is the record from just the one county in Texas that I searched (Harris).
He was also arrested under several aliases, but I thought I had a clear picture and didn't feel like searching them. You can if you want.
Rioter sets self on fire
I got this video from Facebook, but I am leaving it here in case they take it down.
Saturday, May 30, 2020
Orlando riot called on account of weather
A riot peaceful protest began in Orlando with the blocking of a main highway before moving to police headquarters.Just as they arrived a VERY strong thunderstorm moved through the area, and the "protesters" decided to go home.
We had a social obligation today that caused us to have to pass through Orlando. My wife wanted us to take her car, but it has built in emergency braking, which would prevent us from being able to bull through a crowd. Instead, we took my 4 wheel drive pickup.
I had a sidearm with 2 spare mags (52 rounds in total), an industrial sized can of pepper spray, and truck gun, a Skorpion EVO with 4- 32 round mags. Better to not need it than to wish you had brought it.
I picked the PDW because it is easier to maneuver inside of a vehicle than an AR if needed. The protest had already started by the time we were ready to head home, but once I saw the storm on radar, I knew the road would clear out. Hard rain, frequent lightning, and 60 mph winds generally discourage all outdoor activities, even riots.
Harlem update
My son remains in Harlem. He says that last night was busy with gunshot wounds, heart problems, stabbings, but no COVID. He is coming home finally, on Wednesday. Eight weeks of working in Harlem.
He also tells me that there is a protest scheduled in Harlem today. The people there were once happy that he was there to help, but no longer. Now he gets called cracker, honkey, and other racial epithets. He points out to people that he flew more than 1,000 miles to Harlem to help minorities in the middle of a pandemic, and yet still gets called racial names and told that he is a racist. He said that, as far as some are concerned, there is nothing that anyone with white skin can do, you will always be viewed as a racist and hated for it, simply because your skin is lighter in color that theirs.
So much for MLK's dream.
He also tells me that there is a protest scheduled in Harlem today. The people there were once happy that he was there to help, but no longer. Now he gets called cracker, honkey, and other racial epithets. He points out to people that he flew more than 1,000 miles to Harlem to help minorities in the middle of a pandemic, and yet still gets called racial names and told that he is a racist. He said that, as far as some are concerned, there is nothing that anyone with white skin can do, you will always be viewed as a racist and hated for it, simply because your skin is lighter in color that theirs.
So much for MLK's dream.
Reloading
From time to time, people suggest that I get into reloading. I periodically look at it, and I just don't see any advantage. Let me explain:
Cost of equipment
First, I would have to buy reloading equipment. In order to make bulk ammo, it doesn't make sense to buy a single stage press. It would just take too long. So, progressive it is. A Dillon progressive in a decent configuration will coast about $700. There are other things that you need as well, but I won't even list them. Suffice it to say that you are already looking at at least $800 before you load a single round.
Cost of ammo
Second, the cost of expendable supplies. Let's say that you want to load the ammo I go through the most of (besides .22LR): the 9mm FMJ. Using the cost calculator here, and prices from Midway USA, here is what I get:
115 gr 9mm FMJ: $88 for 1,000
Brass I will even consider as free
1,000 pistol Primers for $51
1 pound of Blue Dot powder $24
This brings us to a cost of $170 for 1,000 rounds, or if you prefer, $8.50 for a 50 round box- and that is assuming that you don't need to get brass. If you have to buy brass, you can add another $100 for that, and assuming that you use each case 10 times on average before it is lost or damaged, still increases your cost to $180 for 1,000 rounds- again also ignoring the costs of buying your reloading equipment.
When it is in stock, I can catch 9mm on sale for between $7 and $9 a box for either Federal FMJ or Winchester. (I don't shoot that Tulammo or Bear junk) If I buy bulk pack from Georgia Arms, I can get 1,000 round cans of 115gr FMJ for $230 even now, with the shortage.
Time
Third, my time. How long does it take to reload 1,000 rounds? I will admit that I am not sure. It sure seems that standing in front of that press, pulling that handle for hours would get tedious. Tedium leads to carelessness, which leads me to my next point:
Risk
Four: Mistakes. A mistake when reloading can cost you a gun, a finger, an eye. There is always that consideration.
Alternative
Yes, right now ammo is expensive and hard to get. So are reloading supplies. Many places that I looked were out of powder, low on primers, and out of projectiles. Who cares? I buy large stocks when I can get it cheap. A case here, a case there on sale will cost you less in the long term, and isn't more of an investment than all that reloading equipment.
I have, not counting .22LR, nearly 10,000 rounds here in the house. I could tell you exactly how much, but all of my records (including inventories) were lost in my recent data breach. I know that I have at least 2000 rounds of 9mm, 700 or so of .380, as well as .40S&W, .357Sig, .45ACP, and that is just pistol ammo. I have about 25 ammo cans full of every caliber that I own, except .38 spl and .357 magnum.
The only reason I had to buy that expensive .38 the other day is that I just didn't keep that caliber around for range ammo because up until last week the only revolver I had was the J frame, and I don't practice with it as much as the others. Now that I have another, that will change, but not until prices come down.
Conclusion:
Reloading can save money when ammo is expensive, but actually costs more under normal conditions. When factory ammo becomes scarce and expensive (as it does periodically) reloading supplies also tend to become scarce and expensive.
There is no real benefit to reloading for me. Your conditions may be different.
Cost of equipment
First, I would have to buy reloading equipment. In order to make bulk ammo, it doesn't make sense to buy a single stage press. It would just take too long. So, progressive it is. A Dillon progressive in a decent configuration will coast about $700. There are other things that you need as well, but I won't even list them. Suffice it to say that you are already looking at at least $800 before you load a single round.
Cost of ammo
Second, the cost of expendable supplies. Let's say that you want to load the ammo I go through the most of (besides .22LR): the 9mm FMJ. Using the cost calculator here, and prices from Midway USA, here is what I get:
115 gr 9mm FMJ: $88 for 1,000
Brass I will even consider as free
1,000 pistol Primers for $51
1 pound of Blue Dot powder $24
This brings us to a cost of $170 for 1,000 rounds, or if you prefer, $8.50 for a 50 round box- and that is assuming that you don't need to get brass. If you have to buy brass, you can add another $100 for that, and assuming that you use each case 10 times on average before it is lost or damaged, still increases your cost to $180 for 1,000 rounds- again also ignoring the costs of buying your reloading equipment.
When it is in stock, I can catch 9mm on sale for between $7 and $9 a box for either Federal FMJ or Winchester. (I don't shoot that Tulammo or Bear junk) If I buy bulk pack from Georgia Arms, I can get 1,000 round cans of 115gr FMJ for $230 even now, with the shortage.
Time
Third, my time. How long does it take to reload 1,000 rounds? I will admit that I am not sure. It sure seems that standing in front of that press, pulling that handle for hours would get tedious. Tedium leads to carelessness, which leads me to my next point:
Risk
Four: Mistakes. A mistake when reloading can cost you a gun, a finger, an eye. There is always that consideration.
Alternative
Yes, right now ammo is expensive and hard to get. So are reloading supplies. Many places that I looked were out of powder, low on primers, and out of projectiles. Who cares? I buy large stocks when I can get it cheap. A case here, a case there on sale will cost you less in the long term, and isn't more of an investment than all that reloading equipment.
I have, not counting .22LR, nearly 10,000 rounds here in the house. I could tell you exactly how much, but all of my records (including inventories) were lost in my recent data breach. I know that I have at least 2000 rounds of 9mm, 700 or so of .380, as well as .40S&W, .357Sig, .45ACP, and that is just pistol ammo. I have about 25 ammo cans full of every caliber that I own, except .38 spl and .357 magnum.
The only reason I had to buy that expensive .38 the other day is that I just didn't keep that caliber around for range ammo because up until last week the only revolver I had was the J frame, and I don't practice with it as much as the others. Now that I have another, that will change, but not until prices come down.
Conclusion:
Reloading can save money when ammo is expensive, but actually costs more under normal conditions. When factory ammo becomes scarce and expensive (as it does periodically) reloading supplies also tend to become scarce and expensive.
There is no real benefit to reloading for me. Your conditions may be different.
Cops didn't kill Floyd, says ME
The medical examiner in Minneapolis says that Floyd did not die from asphyxiation or strangulation. They are waiting for toxicology reports. Read the arrest report here.(pdf alert) This is going to make it very difficult to get a conviction.
Note that the ME report says that the cops holding him face down "likely" contributed to Floyd's death. The standard is "beyond a reasonable doubt." Likely won't be good enough, it has to be a sure thing for a criminal case.
If he didn't directly die from the officer's actions for certain, they have an uphill battle here.
Note that the ME report says that the cops holding him face down "likely" contributed to Floyd's death. The standard is "beyond a reasonable doubt." Likely won't be good enough, it has to be a sure thing for a criminal case.
If he didn't directly die from the officer's actions for certain, they have an uphill battle here.
Friday, May 29, 2020
The Russians did it.
According to the NSA, was the Russian GRU who hacked my computer. It seems to me that we are at war on the Internet.
Coming to the suburbs
Rioter says: "We are coming to the suburbs, if we don't get what we want."
Not a good idea, skippy.
Not a good idea, skippy.
Let's review the applicable rules:
Forcible felony, according to 776.08, includes arson, aggravated assault, and the unlawful throwing, placing, or discharging a destructive device or bomb, and any other felony that involves the use or threat of force.
Throwing a Molotov cocktail is arson, which is a forcible felony.
A Molotov cocktail is also considered to be a destructive device under 790.001.Throwing one is a forcible felony
Participating in a riot whereby the participants are forcibly and violently attempting to destroy any building is a forcible felony under 870.03.
Throwing stones and rocks into an occupied structure is a forcible felony under 790.19.
Throwing stones and rocks into an occupied structure is a forcible felony under 790.19.
A person who is occupying a vehicle that is forcibly and unlawfully being entered is presumed to be in reasonable fear for his life under 776.013. A person who is attacked in his or her dwelling, residence, or vehicle has no duty to retreat and has the right to stand his or her ground and use or threaten to use force, including deadly force.
This means that anyone who attempts to forcibly pull me from my vehicle or riot in my neighborhood may be lawfully engaged with lethal force. I can give you a "no riot guarantee" within 500 yards of my house.
Violent people
As far as the in custody death that occurred in Minneapolis: I am withholding my opinion until all of the evidence is in. So many are rushing to judgement based upon selected bits of a video that hasn't even been published in its entirety. There are many missing facts, too many to rush to convict the officers in this case.
I am seeing people say that there is no way you can justify keeping a knee on someone's neck (not throat) for 7 minutes. Anyone who says that either has a political agenda or no experience with violent people. I can think of times that it is not only justifiable, but necessary. That doesn't mean that it was in this case, but that there are times when it is.
Let me explain:
Back when I was a firefighter/paramedic, we were once called to a mobile home park for "altered mental status." When we arrived, we were met in the yard of one of the mobile homes by a woman who told us that her husband was a diabetic who became combative every time his blood sugar dropped too low, and that she had just measured it at only 46 before we arrived. She also said to be careful because the man was on disability and had nothing to do all day but lift weights 8 hours a day.
We entered the front door to find a mildly agitated and confused male, pacing back and forth in the living room. He wasn't a big man, but there was no fat on him. I asked to take his blood sugar. He refused. I tried for ten minutes to get him to eat something, or to agree to come to the hospital. He refused. For ten minutes.
Finally, I told him that he had no choice and he would have to go. He smiled and said, "Let's do this, then."
There were nine of us: Six firefighters and three cops. Not one of us was small. I weighed 250 pounds. He grabbed by Battalion chief by the throat and lifted him off the ground, straight armed. We tackled him and eventually wrestled him to the ground. He was still kicking our collective asses for almost ten minutes, even after we were on the ground. They tried a Taser- no effect.
We finally, with all of us lying on him, managed to get a pair of handcuffs on him. He strained, and broke the chain. Finally he got a little tired and we managed to get a second pair of cuffs on him. At that point, the easiest way to control a patient is the same way you control a steer- control the head. You pin them at the neck (not throat), shoulders, waist, and ankles.
I was unable to start in IV to give him sugar, so I had to resort to giving him a shot of Glucagon. Now glucagon takes a while to work, especially when you give it in a muscle. He continued wrestling with us for another ten minutes before we could get him in the rig. The only way to keep him down was to continue pinning him.
By the time we got to the hospital, his blood sugar was back in the normal range, and he was completely lucid. He shook my hand and thanked me, then apologized and said he hoped that no one was injured. He turned out to be the nicest guy in the world, once he was feeling better.
As for me, I had a torn uniform, fat lip, black eye, and bruises all over. I was sore for three days. There were nine of us, and he solidly kicked every one of our asses.
I am seeing people say that there is no way you can justify keeping a knee on someone's neck (not throat) for 7 minutes. Anyone who says that either has a political agenda or no experience with violent people. I can think of times that it is not only justifiable, but necessary. That doesn't mean that it was in this case, but that there are times when it is.
Let me explain:
Back when I was a firefighter/paramedic, we were once called to a mobile home park for "altered mental status." When we arrived, we were met in the yard of one of the mobile homes by a woman who told us that her husband was a diabetic who became combative every time his blood sugar dropped too low, and that she had just measured it at only 46 before we arrived. She also said to be careful because the man was on disability and had nothing to do all day but lift weights 8 hours a day.
We entered the front door to find a mildly agitated and confused male, pacing back and forth in the living room. He wasn't a big man, but there was no fat on him. I asked to take his blood sugar. He refused. I tried for ten minutes to get him to eat something, or to agree to come to the hospital. He refused. For ten minutes.
Finally, I told him that he had no choice and he would have to go. He smiled and said, "Let's do this, then."
There were nine of us: Six firefighters and three cops. Not one of us was small. I weighed 250 pounds. He grabbed by Battalion chief by the throat and lifted him off the ground, straight armed. We tackled him and eventually wrestled him to the ground. He was still kicking our collective asses for almost ten minutes, even after we were on the ground. They tried a Taser- no effect.
We finally, with all of us lying on him, managed to get a pair of handcuffs on him. He strained, and broke the chain. Finally he got a little tired and we managed to get a second pair of cuffs on him. At that point, the easiest way to control a patient is the same way you control a steer- control the head. You pin them at the neck (not throat), shoulders, waist, and ankles.
I was unable to start in IV to give him sugar, so I had to resort to giving him a shot of Glucagon. Now glucagon takes a while to work, especially when you give it in a muscle. He continued wrestling with us for another ten minutes before we could get him in the rig. The only way to keep him down was to continue pinning him.
By the time we got to the hospital, his blood sugar was back in the normal range, and he was completely lucid. He shook my hand and thanked me, then apologized and said he hoped that no one was injured. He turned out to be the nicest guy in the world, once he was feeling better.
As for me, I had a torn uniform, fat lip, black eye, and bruises all over. I was sore for three days. There were nine of us, and he solidly kicked every one of our asses.
The range makes things better.
With all that has happened this month- a house fire and loss of all of my data to a hacker- I bought a new gun. I decided to make it to the range.
Since this is a new gun, I needed ammo. Everything is in short supply, and what is there is quite expensive. I saw 9mm FMJ selling at $20 a box. I wound up buying a 50 round box of .38 SPL FMJ that cost $35. There is a one box limit per customer per day at the LGS. I had brought a 50 round box with me. I had gotten it on sale back in January for $8.
There are two pistol ranges there, and there was a person who had rented a full auto was in the first one, so they put me into the second. I was the only shooter, so I took advantage of that and broke out the shot timer. I started by putting a pair of 15 round magazines of 9mm into a 7 yard target as quickly as I could line up the Holosun sight on my M&P9c. 30 rounds with a reload in 16.42 seconds. 29 of the shots were inside the 9 ring on a B-29 target. The seventh was low and left in the 7 ring. I slapped the trigger a bit and I knew it was a bad shot as soon as it broke.
I don't consider myself to be a great shot, I just think that the Holosun has made a HUGE improvement in my accuracy and speed. That doesn't change what happened next. The RSO came up behind me and said, "I was going to come over to tell you that you will do better by slowing down to aim, and not trying to be a cowboy, but I can't argue with that target, that is great shooting."
I replied that it wasn't me, it was the sight. It really has done wonders for me.
He said, "It isn't just that. You have to have great trigger control to be that consistent when shooting that fast. You are one of the best shooters I have seen shoot here in quite a while."
When I switched to the revolver, I admitted to him that I rarely shot them. He told me the story about how he was a retired cop, and the 629 was the pistol he started his career with. He then gave me some pointers to help my shooting with it. One was: "Speedloaders are cheating. Learn to load them by hand before you worry about mastering speedloaders."
Just two gun guys alone at a shooting range, sharing stories and talking about guns.
Despite all that has happened, I walked out out of the range smiling.
I bet going to gun control protests don't make people feel like that.
Since this is a new gun, I needed ammo. Everything is in short supply, and what is there is quite expensive. I saw 9mm FMJ selling at $20 a box. I wound up buying a 50 round box of .38 SPL FMJ that cost $35. There is a one box limit per customer per day at the LGS. I had brought a 50 round box with me. I had gotten it on sale back in January for $8.
There are two pistol ranges there, and there was a person who had rented a full auto was in the first one, so they put me into the second. I was the only shooter, so I took advantage of that and broke out the shot timer. I started by putting a pair of 15 round magazines of 9mm into a 7 yard target as quickly as I could line up the Holosun sight on my M&P9c. 30 rounds with a reload in 16.42 seconds. 29 of the shots were inside the 9 ring on a B-29 target. The seventh was low and left in the 7 ring. I slapped the trigger a bit and I knew it was a bad shot as soon as it broke.
I don't consider myself to be a great shot, I just think that the Holosun has made a HUGE improvement in my accuracy and speed. That doesn't change what happened next. The RSO came up behind me and said, "I was going to come over to tell you that you will do better by slowing down to aim, and not trying to be a cowboy, but I can't argue with that target, that is great shooting."
I replied that it wasn't me, it was the sight. It really has done wonders for me.
He said, "It isn't just that. You have to have great trigger control to be that consistent when shooting that fast. You are one of the best shooters I have seen shoot here in quite a while."
When I switched to the revolver, I admitted to him that I rarely shot them. He told me the story about how he was a retired cop, and the 629 was the pistol he started his career with. He then gave me some pointers to help my shooting with it. One was: "Speedloaders are cheating. Learn to load them by hand before you worry about mastering speedloaders."
Just two gun guys alone at a shooting range, sharing stories and talking about guns.
Despite all that has happened, I walked out out of the range smiling.
I bet going to gun control protests don't make people feel like that.
Thursday, May 28, 2020
Civil disobedience
After the Parkland school shooting, the school district where I teach passed a new rule, requiring teachers to wear ID at all times. I am not sure how that will prevent school shootings, since shooters are almost never adults. They are almost always students or former students.
So sure enough, the next year a rule came out requiring students to do the same. Teachers were instructed to write a discipline referral for any student seen without a visible ID. So we began writing the referrals. One student told me "They can't suspend all of us." What eventually happened was the rule was no longer enforced, so that, after about a month, there were no IDs visible on a single student, and about a quarter of the staff stopped wearing them as well.
Now I see that schools are going to require all teachers and staff to wear a mask at all times when they return to school in the fall.
Good luck with that.
So sure enough, the next year a rule came out requiring students to do the same. Teachers were instructed to write a discipline referral for any student seen without a visible ID. So we began writing the referrals. One student told me "They can't suspend all of us." What eventually happened was the rule was no longer enforced, so that, after about a month, there were no IDs visible on a single student, and about a quarter of the staff stopped wearing them as well.
Now I see that schools are going to require all teachers and staff to wear a mask at all times when they return to school in the fall.
Good luck with that.
Part of what makes this so difficult
How can you know who to trust when the so-called good guys are scammers as well?
All your data is belong to us
So it isn't looking good. The software that got me was ech0raix. It is a ransomware attack that encrypts Linux based NAS drives made by QNAP. The infection was caught by the Malware AP, which told me to submit a help ticket to QNAP with the subject line "ransomware."
I got a reply about an hour ago. The software uses a 173 character password to encrypt the files using a 256 bit algorithm. (If I am screwing up the terminology, bear with me. I was up all night trying to retrieve anything I can. I have been up for 32 hours) They say that the key is not entirely random, so there is a chance that someday it will be cracked. For that reason, I will lock the drives away, and maybe I can recover my stuff then.
They claim that it infects your system by brute forcing the password. QNAP accused me of having a weak password. I didn't think I did- It was 11 characters long, upper case, lower case, punctuation, and numbers. I am not sure I believe that, because if all it is, is a brute force attack, then why does it only affect certain QNAP model numbers?
I used to backup data every six months by burning backups onto CD ROM, but I started using all QNAP software for backup, so we stopped doing backups. The last backup I have is from November of 2016. Almost everything since then is gone: Financial data, tax data, pictures, and everything else. I may have some of the pictures, but most are gone, including wedding pictures.
I don't yet know what I have and don't have. We are going through everything to see what we can find saved in various places that the malware may have missed. I will still continue to try and find a way to recover those files, but at this point, I don't see much hope.
We will be getting rid of our NAS and returning to the old ways- backup to CD ROM once a quarter. Not as convenient day to day, but this is the first virus I have ever been hit with, and I have been online and computing since the days of BBS boards. (1980s)
I have been beating myself up for becoming complacent and not backing up all of the time, but I dropped the ball. I just know that I never want to see my wife that upset again. It wounds me to know that a good number (half or more) of her wedding pictures, our Europe vacation, our Alaska trip, and many pictures of the grandkids and me are gone for good, and the effect it has on her.
I got a reply about an hour ago. The software uses a 173 character password to encrypt the files using a 256 bit algorithm. (If I am screwing up the terminology, bear with me. I was up all night trying to retrieve anything I can. I have been up for 32 hours) They say that the key is not entirely random, so there is a chance that someday it will be cracked. For that reason, I will lock the drives away, and maybe I can recover my stuff then.
They claim that it infects your system by brute forcing the password. QNAP accused me of having a weak password. I didn't think I did- It was 11 characters long, upper case, lower case, punctuation, and numbers. I am not sure I believe that, because if all it is, is a brute force attack, then why does it only affect certain QNAP model numbers?
I used to backup data every six months by burning backups onto CD ROM, but I started using all QNAP software for backup, so we stopped doing backups. The last backup I have is from November of 2016. Almost everything since then is gone: Financial data, tax data, pictures, and everything else. I may have some of the pictures, but most are gone, including wedding pictures.
I don't yet know what I have and don't have. We are going through everything to see what we can find saved in various places that the malware may have missed. I will still continue to try and find a way to recover those files, but at this point, I don't see much hope.
We will be getting rid of our NAS and returning to the old ways- backup to CD ROM once a quarter. Not as convenient day to day, but this is the first virus I have ever been hit with, and I have been online and computing since the days of BBS boards. (1980s)
I have been beating myself up for becoming complacent and not backing up all of the time, but I dropped the ball. I just know that I never want to see my wife that upset again. It wounds me to know that a good number (half or more) of her wedding pictures, our Europe vacation, our Alaska trip, and many pictures of the grandkids and me are gone for good, and the effect it has on her.
Ransomware
I am the victim of a ransomware attack. The ech0raix malware has encrypted all of the files on my computer. They are demanding $650 worth of bitcoin. My wife in in tears. The QNAP raid was our backup and I thought we were protected. All of our photos, including of our wedding, my entire life, and my dead father are on there. 1TB of files in all. It is irreplaceable.
The malware didn't touch music or movie files. It only encrypted pictures, Office files, and PDFs.
I am looking for help in fixing this. I found a file on bleepingcomputers.com that claims to fix it, but none of the computers in the house will run it because they claim it is a virus itself.
I don't know what to do. I considered paying the ransom, but people online are saying that paying doesn't get you the decryption key.
The malware didn't touch music or movie files. It only encrypted pictures, Office files, and PDFs.
I am looking for help in fixing this. I found a file on bleepingcomputers.com that claims to fix it, but none of the computers in the house will run it because they claim it is a virus itself.
I don't know what to do. I considered paying the ransom, but people online are saying that paying doesn't get you the decryption key.
Wednesday, May 27, 2020
Generating hate for "the rich"
The economic damage that has been done was created by the government. Not COVID, but the government response to it.
Then the press got hold of it. Now we have stories like this single mother being laid off. Because of this, the bank and her employer are being held responsible. Now I was no fan of the banks during the foreclosure crisis- they created the problem and should have been held accountable, but were not. However, in this case the bad guy is the government. Does the bank want their money? You bet.
Then there is the whole complaint against landlords. People demanding that landlords, who had nothing to do with the current situation, destroy their own businesses so that people can spend the rent money elsewhere. They are demanding that the government pass a law that prevents landlords from charging rent.
Companies being forced to shut down by the government are desperately trying to save themselves by cutting expenses. That, in many cases, means layoffs. Workers claim this is "corporate greed." I am not sure how laying off an employee is greed while refusing to pay rent is noble, but that is neither here nor there.
Of course they are demanding severance pay. I am not sure why they think they deserve to be paid for not working, or why they think the company owes them anything, but I can't always figure that out.
The point here is that people are angry, and they are blaming businesses for the financial problems they are having and demanding that the government fix them, even though it is the government who caused it.
I certainly hope that the economy is back on track by October, or we may be looking at President Biden.
Then the press got hold of it. Now we have stories like this single mother being laid off. Because of this, the bank and her employer are being held responsible. Now I was no fan of the banks during the foreclosure crisis- they created the problem and should have been held accountable, but were not. However, in this case the bad guy is the government. Does the bank want their money? You bet.
Then there is the whole complaint against landlords. People demanding that landlords, who had nothing to do with the current situation, destroy their own businesses so that people can spend the rent money elsewhere. They are demanding that the government pass a law that prevents landlords from charging rent.
Companies being forced to shut down by the government are desperately trying to save themselves by cutting expenses. That, in many cases, means layoffs. Workers claim this is "corporate greed." I am not sure how laying off an employee is greed while refusing to pay rent is noble, but that is neither here nor there.
Of course they are demanding severance pay. I am not sure why they think they deserve to be paid for not working, or why they think the company owes them anything, but I can't always figure that out.
The point here is that people are angry, and they are blaming businesses for the financial problems they are having and demanding that the government fix them, even though it is the government who caused it.
I certainly hope that the economy is back on track by October, or we may be looking at President Biden.
Tuesday, May 26, 2020
Slanting the results
The way that a survey's questions are worded is frequently intended to get a certain result. The one I took today is no exception to that. Today on CensorshipBook, I was asked a two question survey:
1 Do you feel that we censor Too many posts, the right amount of posts, or not enough posts.
My answer: too many.
2 Have you been notified by CensorshipBook that one of your posts has been deleted within the past 7 days?
The answer was a highly misleading 'no'.
For the past year, I have been placed in FB jail no less than 6 times. Two of those bans were 30 day bans, the others were from 24 hours on up. I was notified at least a dozen other times that my posts were being deleted because they were not in keeping with FB community standards. I was notified that I was a "racist" because I posted that "Not everyone you disagree with is Hitler."
Recently, they stopped notifying me when my posts were deleted. Instead, the posts that they don't like are just being quietly removed, and unless you go back and look for them, you would never know.
and that is why the second question was so misleading.
1 Do you feel that we censor Too many posts, the right amount of posts, or not enough posts.
My answer: too many.
2 Have you been notified by CensorshipBook that one of your posts has been deleted within the past 7 days?
The answer was a highly misleading 'no'.
For the past year, I have been placed in FB jail no less than 6 times. Two of those bans were 30 day bans, the others were from 24 hours on up. I was notified at least a dozen other times that my posts were being deleted because they were not in keeping with FB community standards. I was notified that I was a "racist" because I posted that "Not everyone you disagree with is Hitler."
Recently, they stopped notifying me when my posts were deleted. Instead, the posts that they don't like are just being quietly removed, and unless you go back and look for them, you would never know.
and that is why the second question was so misleading.
Karens in NJ don't practice what they preach
From this post:
In a civilized state, some pepper spray would be in order. GTFO of my face. No one appointed you to be the facemask police.
In a civilized state, some pepper spray would be in order. GTFO of my face. No one appointed you to be the facemask police.
Monday, May 25, 2020
Learn to recognize evil, even when it is hidden in the eyes of a child
Reading the two posts on mothers attacking children over at GFZ, I was reminded of a book that was required reading for a child abuse recognition class that I took a decade or so ago. This book details the last week of the life of Ursula Sunshine, a little girl who was abused, beaten, and killed by her mother and mother's boyfriend.
When I read this book, it was so intense that I had to set it down a few times. When I finished, I was in tears. It is incredibly hard to read, but if you are a person who regularly works around children, it is important to recognize the signs that all of the teachers, doctors, and other caregivers missed.
When I read this book, it was so intense that I had to set it down a few times. When I finished, I was in tears. It is incredibly hard to read, but if you are a person who regularly works around children, it is important to recognize the signs that all of the teachers, doctors, and other caregivers missed.
Sunday, May 24, 2020
Mask theater
Just went to Home Depot. Half the customers were wearing masks. Of those, about half either had their nose out or were wearing it as a chinstrap, with the nose and mouth uncovered. It's as if they think a mask is a magic talisman to ward off evil spirits.
Of those who actually attempted to wear it correctly, most had gaps so large that you could stick a finger in the gap. A few of the men were wearing them over beards.
The COVID virus is 80 nanometers in diameter. That is 80 billionths of a meter. Even worn correctly, a surgical mask has pores that are up to 500 nanometers in diameter- more than 7 times larger than the virus. Cloth masks are even worse. The human hair is about 1,000 times wider than this virus. If you can fit a hair between your mask and skin, it isn't doing you any good.
What the powers that be aren't telling you is that the order to wear masks isn't there to keep you from catching it. They just don't work for that. What they are for is to keep you from coughing and sneezing particles over longer distances. When you cough or sneeze, you eject large droplets that fly as far as 2 meters away, which is why the social distance rule is 6 feet. The smaller droplets, called aerosols are the ones most likely to squeeze past a mask, stay suspended in the air for much larger periods.
There is little that can be done to filter out aerosols. The secret here is that the Wuhan virus is fairly fragile and is destroyed by sunlight. So while the aerosol is suspended, any Wuhan V that are in it will be destroyed fairly quickly if exposed to daylight. Your best defense is to be outdoors and at least six feet from others, or be in a building with an HVAC system that exchanges the air frequently. Believe it or not, newer gun ranges have air systems that do just that.
The healthiest thing is to go outdoors or to an indoor range.
Of those who actually attempted to wear it correctly, most had gaps so large that you could stick a finger in the gap. A few of the men were wearing them over beards.
The COVID virus is 80 nanometers in diameter. That is 80 billionths of a meter. Even worn correctly, a surgical mask has pores that are up to 500 nanometers in diameter- more than 7 times larger than the virus. Cloth masks are even worse. The human hair is about 1,000 times wider than this virus. If you can fit a hair between your mask and skin, it isn't doing you any good.
What the powers that be aren't telling you is that the order to wear masks isn't there to keep you from catching it. They just don't work for that. What they are for is to keep you from coughing and sneezing particles over longer distances. When you cough or sneeze, you eject large droplets that fly as far as 2 meters away, which is why the social distance rule is 6 feet. The smaller droplets, called aerosols are the ones most likely to squeeze past a mask, stay suspended in the air for much larger periods.
There is little that can be done to filter out aerosols. The secret here is that the Wuhan virus is fairly fragile and is destroyed by sunlight. So while the aerosol is suspended, any Wuhan V that are in it will be destroyed fairly quickly if exposed to daylight. Your best defense is to be outdoors and at least six feet from others, or be in a building with an HVAC system that exchanges the air frequently. Believe it or not, newer gun ranges have air systems that do just that.
The healthiest thing is to go outdoors or to an indoor range.
End the war on drugs
Drugs kill people. That is a fact whether they are legally prescribed or not. In the case of street drugs, the people that die from them are largely self inflicted deaths. They take them knowing the risks, roll the dice, and sometimes lose.
Not so with the war on drugs. Take for example Breona Taylor and her boyfriend, Kenneth Walker.
Picture this: You are a law abiding, gun owning citizen in Louisville, KY. Your EMT girlfriend is sleeping beside you, tired after working her shift at a local hospital. There is a loud noise at 1 am on a Thursday night. A group of men enter your home without announcing who they are and open fire, shooting more than 20 times, striking your girlfriend with 8 bullets.
What do you do? Shoot back, of course.
When the dust settles, it turns out the men were police officers who were executing a "no knock" warrant, looking for a suspect who lived miles away and was already in their jail at the time of the raid. One of the cops was wounded in the leg.
Police claim that they knocked on the door before forcing their way inside. They say they were immediately met with gunfire.
Police have said it's unclear what Taylor's involvement was or how she died. The coroner says that she died of bullets to the torso.
Kenneth Walker was charged with attempted murder of a police officer.
When cops execute a warrant on the wrong house, fail to identify themselves, and then begin shooting how is the homeowner supposed to know the difference between them and a gang of criminal home invaders? Answer: you aren't, because there *is* no difference.
Not so with the war on drugs. Take for example Breona Taylor and her boyfriend, Kenneth Walker.
Picture this: You are a law abiding, gun owning citizen in Louisville, KY. Your EMT girlfriend is sleeping beside you, tired after working her shift at a local hospital. There is a loud noise at 1 am on a Thursday night. A group of men enter your home without announcing who they are and open fire, shooting more than 20 times, striking your girlfriend with 8 bullets.
What do you do? Shoot back, of course.
When the dust settles, it turns out the men were police officers who were executing a "no knock" warrant, looking for a suspect who lived miles away and was already in their jail at the time of the raid. One of the cops was wounded in the leg.
Police claim that they knocked on the door before forcing their way inside. They say they were immediately met with gunfire.
Police have said it's unclear what Taylor's involvement was or how she died. The coroner says that she died of bullets to the torso.
Kenneth Walker was charged with attempted murder of a police officer.
When cops execute a warrant on the wrong house, fail to identify themselves, and then begin shooting how is the homeowner supposed to know the difference between them and a gang of criminal home invaders? Answer: you aren't, because there *is* no difference.
Working the numbers
Because I like to look at numbers, let's take a look at US death numbers for the first 20 weeks of 2020 and compare them to the numbers for the first 20 weeks of 2019.
For the first 20 weeks of this year, there have been 1,151,067 deaths in the USA.
For the first 20 weeks of 2019, there were 1,134,396 deaths in the USA.
Meaning that there were 16,671 more deaths for the same period in 2020 than there were in 2019.
Even so, the powers that be are claiming over 91,027 dead from COVID 19 for the same period.
The CDC listed Flu related pneumonia deaths for the first 20 weeks of 2019 as being 171,184.
For flu related pneumonia in 2020, the number of deaths has been listed at 104,341.
If you take the difference in flu related pneumonia, reclassify those viral pneumonias as being COVID related instead, then add in the 16,671 additional deaths for 2020, you arrive at the figure of 83,514.
It appears as though many viral pneumonias are being reclassified as "presumed COVID" while last year, they were being classified as "presumed influenza." The reason is that many of the symptoms are the same, and if a patient has been symptomatic for more than 5 days, hospitals don't bother testing for influenza because there is no difference in treatment between influenza and other viral pneumonias.
Source: CDC influenza statistics spreadsheet, found:
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/weeklyarchives2019-2020/data/NCHSData20.csv
Saturday, May 23, 2020
Random thought
Why does EVERY show that involves gun play wind up with a pseudo martial arts battle following someone being disarmed by some sort of slick move? Why do the people attempting the disarming ever get shot? This is why so many soccer moms believe that if you carry a gun, it will just get taken away and used against you.
Friday, May 22, 2020
Sting
An ad for this product came up on my FB feed.
If this isn't an ATF sting operation, I will be surprised. Almost as obvious as the guy about 10 years ago who approached me in the parking lot of the Orlando gun show and offered to sell me an M-2 carbine, complete with happy switch, for only $800.
If this isn't an ATF sting operation, I will be surprised. Almost as obvious as the guy about 10 years ago who approached me in the parking lot of the Orlando gun show and offered to sell me an M-2 carbine, complete with happy switch, for only $800.
Thursday, May 21, 2020
The are going to do to the nation what they did to gas cans
The CDC just issued recommendations for reopening schools. They are impossible to comply with.
No sharing of items or supplies? That means no shared textbooks, computers, calculators, or anything else. Where are schools going to get the money to buy all of this stuff?
Desks six feet apart. This means that each student's desk area will occupy 28 square feet of space. My largest class had 26 students this year, meaning that each classroom will have to be about 750 square feet. Not all classrooms are that large.
One child per seat on the bus and skip every other seat. That means a bus designed for 60 can only take 15 or so. How are schools going to get their kids home when some of them already get home 3 hours after school is over?
No changing of classrooms. How are high schools to function? I teach science. How will I teach math, social studies, foreign languages, and all of the other classes students need? Heck, not all students are in the same math classes. Some are in Calculus, others Geometry, some Business math. Everyone is to have lunch in class?
Then there are Federal laws that dictate that certain students get services that I cannot provide. If I follow these recommendations, I am violating several Federal education laws.
Back in March, the CDC was projecting that over 2 million Americans would die from the Wuhan flu.
They projected that our hospitals would be overwhelmed. To prevent this, we were told that we would all as a nation have to be placed on house arrest. 'Flatten the curve' became our war cry.
The CDC and WHO announced that masks were not effective at preventing infection. Then just a couple of months later, they were made mandatory, then a couple of weeks after that, we are finding out that there is no evidence that masks are effective, but they remain required, because there is no evidence that they AREN'T effective, either.
New York city became overwhelmed. Medical personnel from all over the country were sent to NYC to help out, my son among them. The reports coming from there were downright scary.
We were told that the risk of infection from services was so great, that no self serve stations for food or beverage would be permitted by the FDA. Several restaurants went out of business as a result. More of them remain closed, waiting for that order to change. Even though the CDC now says that there is no evidence that transmission from surfaces is even possible.
When do we believe you?
No sharing of items or supplies? That means no shared textbooks, computers, calculators, or anything else. Where are schools going to get the money to buy all of this stuff?
Desks six feet apart. This means that each student's desk area will occupy 28 square feet of space. My largest class had 26 students this year, meaning that each classroom will have to be about 750 square feet. Not all classrooms are that large.
One child per seat on the bus and skip every other seat. That means a bus designed for 60 can only take 15 or so. How are schools going to get their kids home when some of them already get home 3 hours after school is over?
No changing of classrooms. How are high schools to function? I teach science. How will I teach math, social studies, foreign languages, and all of the other classes students need? Heck, not all students are in the same math classes. Some are in Calculus, others Geometry, some Business math. Everyone is to have lunch in class?
Then there are Federal laws that dictate that certain students get services that I cannot provide. If I follow these recommendations, I am violating several Federal education laws.
Back in March, the CDC was projecting that over 2 million Americans would die from the Wuhan flu.
They projected that our hospitals would be overwhelmed. To prevent this, we were told that we would all as a nation have to be placed on house arrest. 'Flatten the curve' became our war cry.
The CDC and WHO announced that masks were not effective at preventing infection. Then just a couple of months later, they were made mandatory, then a couple of weeks after that, we are finding out that there is no evidence that masks are effective, but they remain required, because there is no evidence that they AREN'T effective, either.
New York city became overwhelmed. Medical personnel from all over the country were sent to NYC to help out, my son among them. The reports coming from there were downright scary.
We were told that the risk of infection from services was so great, that no self serve stations for food or beverage would be permitted by the FDA. Several restaurants went out of business as a result. More of them remain closed, waiting for that order to change. Even though the CDC now says that there is no evidence that transmission from surfaces is even possible.
When do we believe you?
COVID fakery
Scientists and epidemiologists admit that there is no evidence that masks prevent the transmission of respiratory infections, but state the people should wear them anyway.
Evan as it turns out that states who are loosening the 'lockdown' restrictions are seeing reductions in COVID cases. This tracks with what I saw last week, that there is no evidence that lockdowns change the progression of COVID infections in populations.
So do we stay in lockdown until there is a vaccine, or just until the election is over?
Evan as it turns out that states who are loosening the 'lockdown' restrictions are seeing reductions in COVID cases. This tracks with what I saw last week, that there is no evidence that lockdowns change the progression of COVID infections in populations.
So do we stay in lockdown until there is a vaccine, or just until the election is over?
Safety warning- sex offender poses as cop
For more than 20 years, Jeremy Dewitte has plagued the United States, parading around as a cop. A very confrontational one. He owns a company called Metro State Services whose stated business is to escort funeral processions. Here is a video of him in action:
He and his brother both do this while driving vehicles that look remarkably like police vehicles and wearing uniforms that appear so convincing that Dewitte's brother (named Dylan Vogt) has actually directed real cops to make arrests, and they obeyed. Once the mistake was realized, charges against the man were dropped, but now he is suing everyone involved.
He was convicted of impersonating a LEO in 2001 and served 22 months in prison. He was also convicted of sexually molesting a child in 2003, serving a year for that crime. He is required to register as a sex offender, and was arrested for failing to do that in 2008.
In all, he has been arrested four times for impersonating a police officer. Here is the link to a story about his third impersonation arrest. Being a convicted felon means that he cannot possess a firearm or ammunition, so he carries an air soft gun in his police holster, which he has been known to reach for when confronted.
While in Chicago, he attacked a tow truck driver and managed to convince the responding officers that he was a Florida LEO, so they let him go.
It isn't just cops that he impersonates. He has also been involved in faking an Army career- the most decorated and qualified private in US Army history.
It seems as though he is constantly in trouble with the law. He was arrested in February for illegally recording state's attorney employees phone calls.
Be careful when obeying what you think might be a cop. It may be a sex offender in disguise.
Wednesday, May 20, 2020
Tuesday, May 19, 2020
Electrical work
The second quote for electrical work stemming from our fire of last week is in. This one is a much more reasonable $900. I just hired the company to do the work at that price. It will be done by Friday.
Monday, May 18, 2020
Georgia shooting
The Ahmad Arbery case: my position.
By now, everyone who reads this blog is familiar with the case, where two white men (Greg McMichaels and his son Travis) allegedly harassed and shot a black man (Ahmad Arbery) who was doing nothing but jogging. When this story was getting press, I old everyone that I would be waiting for more evidence before forming an opinion, especially considering that Benjamin Crump is the family's attorney.
Well, enough evidence has come to light that I feel comfortable forming an opinion.
There are a couple of videos that are in the public domain that show 1)Mr. Arbery charging the pair of armed men who shoot him and are later charged with his murder, and a second video that shows Mr. Arbery inside of a home that was under construction less than 2 weeks before the shooting. This second video is important, not because of what it shows, but that it establishes some ground work.
The owner of the home under construction had been having problems with break ins to the point that he installed motion sensors and security cameras on the property. Those cameras showed Arbery inside of the home on at least three different occasions in the months before the shooting.
In fact, the construction site being burglarized was so pervasive that the owner asked police for help, and one officer recommended that they contact Greg McMichaels for assistance.
Greg spotted Arbery jogging in the neighborhood and alerted his son, Travis. The two armed themselves and went to confront Arbery. Arbery ran around the truck, closed the distance between himself and Travis (who was armed with a shotgun), there was a struggle for the weapon and Armery was shot twice. The autopsy shows that Arbery had been trying to take Travis' shotgun, because one of the shots had gone through Arbery's wrist in an angle consistent with him holding onto the barrel of the weapon.
During this, a third man (Perez) had arrived. He had this to say:
Arbery was no choir boy. He was confronted by a school resource officer who spotted him with a gun stuffed in his waistband while trying to enter a basketball game. Arbery ran, ditched the gun, but was caught anyway. He admitted to being armed after the gun was found on the ground. Arbery was sentenced to five years’ probation as a first offender on charges of carrying a weapon on campus and several counts of obstructing a law enforcement officer.
In December of 2017, Arbery was arrested for shoplifting a television at the local WalMart. Greg McMichaels led the investigation that resulted in Arbery having his probation violated.
So these are the important facts, IMO. Here is how it appears to me:
The McMichaels have already admitted that they shot and killed Arbery. Remember that any trial will involve the prosecution attempting to prove that, beyond a reasonable doubt this was NOT a self defense shooting. I will leave the lawyers to argue the legal minutiae, but I do know that the case will hinge on what the mindset of the shooter was at the time of the shooting. If Travis is found to have shot Arbery in self defense, then I don't see how they can convict Greg for being his accomplice.
All the defense has to do is come up with a scenario that fits the evidence and looks like self defense. I think there is room here to paint the story as:
The McMichaels knew that there had been break ins, that Greg knew that Arbery was known to be a criminal, and that he was known to carry weapons. Greg McMichaels was working cooperatively with the police and the homeowner of the structure Arbery unlawfully entered, to keep an eye on the property, particularly in the event of unlawful intruders. When they saw Arbery, they were going to question him as to what he had been doing on the property.
When he saw them, instead of running away or stopping to talk, he charged Travis, grabbed the muzzle of the shotgun and attempted to wrest it away. Fearing for his life, Travis fired to defend himself.
My opinion is this: It will be difficult for the prosecution to get a conviction on this case, unless there is other evidence out there that somehow changes the entire story.
By now, everyone who reads this blog is familiar with the case, where two white men (Greg McMichaels and his son Travis) allegedly harassed and shot a black man (Ahmad Arbery) who was doing nothing but jogging. When this story was getting press, I old everyone that I would be waiting for more evidence before forming an opinion, especially considering that Benjamin Crump is the family's attorney.
Well, enough evidence has come to light that I feel comfortable forming an opinion.
There are a couple of videos that are in the public domain that show 1)Mr. Arbery charging the pair of armed men who shoot him and are later charged with his murder, and a second video that shows Mr. Arbery inside of a home that was under construction less than 2 weeks before the shooting. This second video is important, not because of what it shows, but that it establishes some ground work.
The owner of the home under construction had been having problems with break ins to the point that he installed motion sensors and security cameras on the property. Those cameras showed Arbery inside of the home on at least three different occasions in the months before the shooting.
In fact, the construction site being burglarized was so pervasive that the owner asked police for help, and one officer recommended that they contact Greg McMichaels for assistance.
Greg spotted Arbery jogging in the neighborhood and alerted his son, Travis. The two armed themselves and went to confront Arbery. Arbery ran around the truck, closed the distance between himself and Travis (who was armed with a shotgun), there was a struggle for the weapon and Armery was shot twice. The autopsy shows that Arbery had been trying to take Travis' shotgun, because one of the shots had gone through Arbery's wrist in an angle consistent with him holding onto the barrel of the weapon.
During this, a third man (Perez) had arrived. He had this to say:
All we knew about him was that he was the guy who kept showing up on our cameras, no one knew who it was.I don't see how this will be admitted at trial because Perez can't possibly testify to what the other people there knew or didn't know.
Arbery was no choir boy. He was confronted by a school resource officer who spotted him with a gun stuffed in his waistband while trying to enter a basketball game. Arbery ran, ditched the gun, but was caught anyway. He admitted to being armed after the gun was found on the ground. Arbery was sentenced to five years’ probation as a first offender on charges of carrying a weapon on campus and several counts of obstructing a law enforcement officer.
In December of 2017, Arbery was arrested for shoplifting a television at the local WalMart. Greg McMichaels led the investigation that resulted in Arbery having his probation violated.
So these are the important facts, IMO. Here is how it appears to me:
The McMichaels have already admitted that they shot and killed Arbery. Remember that any trial will involve the prosecution attempting to prove that, beyond a reasonable doubt this was NOT a self defense shooting. I will leave the lawyers to argue the legal minutiae, but I do know that the case will hinge on what the mindset of the shooter was at the time of the shooting. If Travis is found to have shot Arbery in self defense, then I don't see how they can convict Greg for being his accomplice.
All the defense has to do is come up with a scenario that fits the evidence and looks like self defense. I think there is room here to paint the story as:
The McMichaels knew that there had been break ins, that Greg knew that Arbery was known to be a criminal, and that he was known to carry weapons. Greg McMichaels was working cooperatively with the police and the homeowner of the structure Arbery unlawfully entered, to keep an eye on the property, particularly in the event of unlawful intruders. When they saw Arbery, they were going to question him as to what he had been doing on the property.
When he saw them, instead of running away or stopping to talk, he charged Travis, grabbed the muzzle of the shotgun and attempted to wrest it away. Fearing for his life, Travis fired to defend himself.
My opinion is this: It will be difficult for the prosecution to get a conviction on this case, unless there is other evidence out there that somehow changes the entire story.
Sunday, May 17, 2020
What is in your holster drawer?
Reader Joel recommended Andrews leather in response to my request for a holster for my L frame Smith and Wesson. He points out that I didn't specify, and that made me want to do a holster post. Like most of us who carry on a regular basis, I have dozens of holsters of different types. Some worked, some didn't.
Like many people who begin to carry, my first holster was an Uncle Mike's gun sock. I soon learned better. Since then, I have tried many, many types. Some worked out well, and some went into a box in storage, never to be heard from again.
Here are a few notable mentions:
IWB holsters:
Andrews' Leather. I own 4 copies of his McDaniel II. I like the holster, but it has one big flaw that means it sits in my holster drawer, rarely used: it only has one belt loop, at the rear of the holster. This means that it quite often pivots around and the pistol gets stuck in a position that is not easy to draw from.
(Photo from Andrews Leather)
For inside the waistband appendix (AIWB) carry, I have an Aliengear Shapeshift appendix. This is another hybrid holster with soft nylon back and Kydex front.
MTAC hybrid holster by Comp-Tac. This is a hybrid holster that places leather on the side of the gun pressed against your body, and Kydex wrapped around the other side of the weapon. This is for when I want to carry at the 4 or 5 o'clock position. I own two, and I like them because they are tuckable. You can wear a tucked in dress shirt over them, and they become invisible. I also like the fact that it is soft leather being pressed into my side, and not hard plastic.
Winthrop IWB: This is probably my most used holster when it comes to IWB carry. The only disappointment is that it will not fit the 9c while the Holosun is on it.
IWB holster from Diamond D Leather in Alaska. These guys do great work. This is a great IWB holster, and they make great gun belts. I use this one for carrying my full sized M&Ps.
Belt holsters (OWB):
I also have a couple of Saddle Style holsters from Andrews that I like, but I can only carry with that one when I can wear a cover garment. It fits my S&W 9c with the Holosun sight.
There is another holster stamped with his logo in the drawer, but I cannot remember which one it is, but I can't say which one it is, because it isn't in his current catalog. I don't use it often, but it appears like a version of a belt slide holster.
Don Hume JIT slide holster. This one is left over from my IDPA days. I was able to draw my Sig229 very quickly from this holster. It still gets used from time to time in classes or if weather permits a cover garment. It is probably the most comfortable holster I own, and it fits nearly every auto I have.
Desantis speed scabbard: This has to be one of my favorite slide holsters. It fits my S&W9c perfectly, even with the Holosun on it.
Sneaky Pete makes a nice holster that hides my S&W shields pretty nicely. My son says that he finds it hard to believe that they are legal, but I find that most people just assume that it is a case for some sort of electronic device.
Pocket carry:
Galco G119 L: This is a leather pocket holster. I carry my J frame 642 in this one because it is easy to just drop it in a pocket of my shorts when I am going out the door to work outside, mow the lawn (although I don't mow anymore. I have people for that) or just a quick run to the store. It is fast, convenient, and works for those hot Florida days when you can't wear much in the way of clothes.
Ankle carry:
Galco ankle holster. I sometimes carry my J frame in an ankle holster. I used to do this a lot when I was a paramedic. Just wrap the holster around my boot, and pull my EMS pants over it. No one knew that I carried it, except my partner.
Miscellaneous carry:
Possum Pouch crotch holster. This is great for carrying in places where it is legal to carry, but they discourage carry to the point of cursory searches, what I call non permissive environments. You can get a .380 Bodyguard or a J frame revolver past most security with this- wear a big belt buckle- it sets off the magnetometer, you lift your shirt, security guard sees belt buckle, waves you on.
I have belly bands, which I find uncomfortable. The material finds a spot and digs in.
I have a fanny pack that I will still sometimes use to carry while I am out running, because there is just no other way to carry with jogging shorts and a light t shirt on. I used to carry like this a lot when I lived in the Orlando area, because tourists used to wear them all the time. Now that I am not in the Orlando area, I rarely use it.
Like many people who begin to carry, my first holster was an Uncle Mike's gun sock. I soon learned better. Since then, I have tried many, many types. Some worked out well, and some went into a box in storage, never to be heard from again.
Here are a few notable mentions:
IWB holsters:
Andrews' Leather. I own 4 copies of his McDaniel II. I like the holster, but it has one big flaw that means it sits in my holster drawer, rarely used: it only has one belt loop, at the rear of the holster. This means that it quite often pivots around and the pistol gets stuck in a position that is not easy to draw from.
(Photo from Andrews Leather)
For inside the waistband appendix (AIWB) carry, I have an Aliengear Shapeshift appendix. This is another hybrid holster with soft nylon back and Kydex front.
MTAC hybrid holster by Comp-Tac. This is a hybrid holster that places leather on the side of the gun pressed against your body, and Kydex wrapped around the other side of the weapon. This is for when I want to carry at the 4 or 5 o'clock position. I own two, and I like them because they are tuckable. You can wear a tucked in dress shirt over them, and they become invisible. I also like the fact that it is soft leather being pressed into my side, and not hard plastic.
Winthrop IWB: This is probably my most used holster when it comes to IWB carry. The only disappointment is that it will not fit the 9c while the Holosun is on it.
IWB holster from Diamond D Leather in Alaska. These guys do great work. This is a great IWB holster, and they make great gun belts. I use this one for carrying my full sized M&Ps.
Belt holsters (OWB):
I also have a couple of Saddle Style holsters from Andrews that I like, but I can only carry with that one when I can wear a cover garment. It fits my S&W 9c with the Holosun sight.
There is another holster stamped with his logo in the drawer, but I cannot remember which one it is, but I can't say which one it is, because it isn't in his current catalog. I don't use it often, but it appears like a version of a belt slide holster.
Don Hume JIT slide holster. This one is left over from my IDPA days. I was able to draw my Sig229 very quickly from this holster. It still gets used from time to time in classes or if weather permits a cover garment. It is probably the most comfortable holster I own, and it fits nearly every auto I have.
Desantis speed scabbard: This has to be one of my favorite slide holsters. It fits my S&W9c perfectly, even with the Holosun on it.
Sneaky Pete makes a nice holster that hides my S&W shields pretty nicely. My son says that he finds it hard to believe that they are legal, but I find that most people just assume that it is a case for some sort of electronic device.
Pocket carry:
Galco G119 L: This is a leather pocket holster. I carry my J frame 642 in this one because it is easy to just drop it in a pocket of my shorts when I am going out the door to work outside, mow the lawn (although I don't mow anymore. I have people for that) or just a quick run to the store. It is fast, convenient, and works for those hot Florida days when you can't wear much in the way of clothes.
Ankle carry:
Galco ankle holster. I sometimes carry my J frame in an ankle holster. I used to do this a lot when I was a paramedic. Just wrap the holster around my boot, and pull my EMS pants over it. No one knew that I carried it, except my partner.
Miscellaneous carry:
Possum Pouch crotch holster. This is great for carrying in places where it is legal to carry, but they discourage carry to the point of cursory searches, what I call non permissive environments. You can get a .380 Bodyguard or a J frame revolver past most security with this- wear a big belt buckle- it sets off the magnetometer, you lift your shirt, security guard sees belt buckle, waves you on.
I have belly bands, which I find uncomfortable. The material finds a spot and digs in.
I have a fanny pack that I will still sometimes use to carry while I am out running, because there is just no other way to carry with jogging shorts and a light t shirt on. I used to carry like this a lot when I lived in the Orlando area, because tourists used to wear them all the time. Now that I am not in the Orlando area, I rarely use it.
Saturday, May 16, 2020
Advice on leather holsters needed for L frame Smith and Wesson.
Up until now, I have only owned two revolvers. One was an old RG revolver in .22LR that I traded my mother for. She actually thought it was a good home defense gun, and I traded with her so she could get a better one. I got rid of it a year later for a $100 gift card in a gun buyback. That was a good deal, since the thing was a piece of crap when it was new.
The second was my model 642 j frame Smith and Wesson. When I bought it, I discussed it with Marko, who afterwards actually wrote a blog post about it entitled "Carrying the mighty J frame," but that was on the old Munchkin Wrangler blog which has since gone defunct.
During the lockdown, I rewatched all of the old "Dirty Harry" movies. Suddenly, I wanted a revolver, because reasons. I was at the LGS the other day and saw a model 686 in .357 magnum for a pretty good price, so I bought it. Now I am looking for recommendations for holsters to fit it. My normal leather guys don't have what I am looking for. So, I would appreciate anyone who is familiar with custom leather makers: help me out here.
*** EDITED TO ADD: The shopping spree for ammo and a new gun were for shopping therapy. It always makes me happy to buy new toys, whether that be guns, radios, electronics, or other neat gadgets. I add this so some idiot doesn't try to red flag me for saying that I have had enough so I went ammo shopping. ***
The second was my model 642 j frame Smith and Wesson. When I bought it, I discussed it with Marko, who afterwards actually wrote a blog post about it entitled "Carrying the mighty J frame," but that was on the old Munchkin Wrangler blog which has since gone defunct.
During the lockdown, I rewatched all of the old "Dirty Harry" movies. Suddenly, I wanted a revolver, because reasons. I was at the LGS the other day and saw a model 686 in .357 magnum for a pretty good price, so I bought it. Now I am looking for recommendations for holsters to fit it. My normal leather guys don't have what I am looking for. So, I would appreciate anyone who is familiar with custom leather makers: help me out here.
*** EDITED TO ADD: The shopping spree for ammo and a new gun were for shopping therapy. It always makes me happy to buy new toys, whether that be guns, radios, electronics, or other neat gadgets. I add this so some idiot doesn't try to red flag me for saying that I have had enough so I went ammo shopping. ***
Friday, May 15, 2020
Stressful week, so new gun
We had been having problems with devices dropping out of the network, so on Monday I updated us to a mesh network. There are now three repeaters around the house. It initially was pretty easy, but there were a few stubborn devices that would not make the switch. I finally got the last device to switch over- on Friday morning.
On Tuesday, we had a house fire.
On Wednesday, the TV in the living room stopped working. The picture and sound would cut out for about 20 seconds and then come on for 10. Over and over. Troubleshooting showed that the HDMI cable was bad. The TV is on the wall, with all of the wiring inside the wall. It had to come down. This required a trip to Best Buy, who won't let you in the store- you have to order online and pick it up at the store, 30 minutes away. When we got there, they didn't have it. So that required a trip to WalMart. That in itself was an adventure.
On Thursday, the electrician came by and looked at the wiring job.
Today, the estimate for $1600 came in for the electrical job. Then the dishwasher broke. It seems to be a water sensor that looks for leaks and shuts the washer down if it detects one. The good news is that it is relatively new, and the warranty people will be here on Wednesday. Until then, we will be hand washing. I also need to drain the hot tub, since it won't have power for awhile.
I had enough. I went shopping for some more ammo and discovered that the ammo shelves are almost empty, despite a notice that there is a 1 box limit per person. 9mm FMJ is selling for $20 a box. Instead, I decided to buy a new Smith and Wesson 686 in .357 Magnum. They gave me a decent price, I think. I could have paid less from an online source, but by the time I paid transfer fees, the cost would have been the same. I blame the Dirty Harry movie I watched this weekend for my sudden desire to own a revolver.
On Tuesday, we had a house fire.
On Wednesday, the TV in the living room stopped working. The picture and sound would cut out for about 20 seconds and then come on for 10. Over and over. Troubleshooting showed that the HDMI cable was bad. The TV is on the wall, with all of the wiring inside the wall. It had to come down. This required a trip to Best Buy, who won't let you in the store- you have to order online and pick it up at the store, 30 minutes away. When we got there, they didn't have it. So that required a trip to WalMart. That in itself was an adventure.
On Thursday, the electrician came by and looked at the wiring job.
Today, the estimate for $1600 came in for the electrical job. Then the dishwasher broke. It seems to be a water sensor that looks for leaks and shuts the washer down if it detects one. The good news is that it is relatively new, and the warranty people will be here on Wednesday. Until then, we will be hand washing. I also need to drain the hot tub, since it won't have power for awhile.
I had enough. I went shopping for some more ammo and discovered that the ammo shelves are almost empty, despite a notice that there is a 1 box limit per person. 9mm FMJ is selling for $20 a box. Instead, I decided to buy a new Smith and Wesson 686 in .357 Magnum. They gave me a decent price, I think. I could have paid less from an online source, but by the time I paid transfer fees, the cost would have been the same. I blame the Dirty Harry movie I watched this weekend for my sudden desire to own a revolver.
First quote in
The electrician came by yesterday to break the hot tub off on to its own circuit. He said the job looked easy. It is a 50 foot run from the load center to where the hot tub is located. The attic is large with s straight shot from the load center to the wall where the disconnect will go. He said it would take less than 3 hours in total, not counting time for inspections. I figured it would be near $500.
The quote came in. Holy cow.
They quoted $900 in labor, $600 in parts, and another $150 for a permit. 900 in labor for an "easy" job? I spoke with another electrician who said that no permit is needed to wire in an existing hot tub, only for new installations.
I priced out the parts at home depot:
45 amp breaker: $16.49
60 amp non fuse disconnect: $19.23
60 feet 6/3 romex: $130
40 amp gfi breaker: 12.67
conduit and fittings for the non-attic portion should be around $40.
So, total for parts is less than $250.
This quote looks heavily padded.
I will be getting more quotes.
The quote came in. Holy cow.
They quoted $900 in labor, $600 in parts, and another $150 for a permit. 900 in labor for an "easy" job? I spoke with another electrician who said that no permit is needed to wire in an existing hot tub, only for new installations.
I priced out the parts at home depot:
45 amp breaker: $16.49
60 amp non fuse disconnect: $19.23
60 feet 6/3 romex: $130
40 amp gfi breaker: 12.67
conduit and fittings for the non-attic portion should be around $40.
So, total for parts is less than $250.
This quote looks heavily padded.
I will be getting more quotes.
HAM radio trips breakers
When my wife and I first combined households, she had no problem with me installing my HF radio in the house. We have a bedroom that I can use, but the HOA won't let me have a visible antenna, so I ran 2 pieces of coax up the wall and into the attic, where I mounted a dual band stick and a G5RV wire antenna. At 52 feet long, it stretches most of the way across the house, but this antenna allows me to transmit in all bands from 10 meters down to 40 meters.
Anyway, I transmitted on low power to check SWR, and once that was good, I began scanning the 20 meter band. I found a guy in Texas who wanted to talk, cranked it up to 50 watts, and hit the transmit key. Every light in the house went off.
My wife was cooking dinner at the time. She was not happy. I reset the breaker, and figured it was harmonics, so I moved to a different band and began to transmit. Lights out, again. Being a smart man, I decided to stop for the night and figure things out later.
It turns out that Eaton, the maker of the circuit breaker didn't know that they needed to make sure their product was tolerant of stray radio transmissions. They had to go to the Amateur Radio Relay League for assistance. The really bad part in all of this is that Amateur (HAM) radio operators took a lot of blame for this. If you do a Google search for "HAM radio fault arc circuit breaker" you find out that contractors in Florida were blaming HAM radio operators for the issue in at least one Florida community.
Anyway, I transmitted on low power to check SWR, and once that was good, I began scanning the 20 meter band. I found a guy in Texas who wanted to talk, cranked it up to 50 watts, and hit the transmit key. Every light in the house went off.
My wife was cooking dinner at the time. She was not happy. I reset the breaker, and figured it was harmonics, so I moved to a different band and began to transmit. Lights out, again. Being a smart man, I decided to stop for the night and figure things out later.
It turns out that Eaton, the maker of the circuit breaker didn't know that they needed to make sure their product was tolerant of stray radio transmissions. They had to go to the Amateur Radio Relay League for assistance. The really bad part in all of this is that Amateur (HAM) radio operators took a lot of blame for this. If you do a Google search for "HAM radio fault arc circuit breaker" you find out that contractors in Florida were blaming HAM radio operators for the issue in at least one Florida community.
Thursday, May 14, 2020
All guns are Glocks, AK47s, or AR15s
Volusia county deputies were involved in a shooting yesterday, well let me just use the quote from deputies:
The police posted a picture of the weapon on their Facebook page this afternoon:
So now, a pump action shotgun is considered to be an "AK-47 style weapon."
Deputies said the suspect eventually reached his home and brandished what appeared to be an AK-47 style weapon out of his window at deputies and they returned fire, mortally wounding the man.
The police posted a picture of the weapon on their Facebook page this afternoon:
So now, a pump action shotgun is considered to be an "AK-47 style weapon."
Cybersecurity
My employer is requiring me to take an online course in cybersecurity. The ironic parts of this are:
- The course only works in Internet Explorer, not Edge, Chrome, or any other browser. Microsoft stopped providing security updates to IE in 2016 and hasn't produced this browser since 2012.
- The website requires you to turn off pop up blockers and antivirus software to run.
- The site is not secure, because its certificate has expired.
- The website requires you to turn off pop up blockers and antivirus software to run.
- The site is not secure, because its certificate has expired.
When you try to play the video, a warning comes up that says the content being played is not secure. You have to hit "enable insecure content" in order to watch it.
I complained to my boss, and was informed that if I want to work from home, I have to take the course online. Otherwise, I will be required to go in to take the course and will will have to work there from now on.
I am sure this class will teach me a lot about internet security.
House electrical issues
So my house fire the other day has illustrated some issues. Titanium boy points out:
Now I was an electrician for six years in the Navy. One of the things that I was always fond of telling my subordinates is that a fuse blowing or breaker tripping isn't a problem, it is a symptom of a problem.
Here are a few of the problems that I have discovered since I moved in:
The most recent one was the fire. I rewired that receptacle with pigtails and wire nuts. The problem that caused it was that the electrician who installed power for the hot tub simply tapped it off of the same circuit as the plug that just failed. Not technically an overload, the hot tub should still be on its own circuit. The good news is that I have wanted to convert the tub to 220v, but the wife didn't want to spend the money. She is OK with it now, and the electrician will be out this afternoon. I could do it myself, but this job looks like a PITA with the way that the wire has to be run, so I will pay someone the money to do it.
A few months ago, I did a project where I mounted the TV on the wall. While doing that, I had to install a plug in the wall 5 feet off the floor. I intended to just tap off of the plug that was below that spot. I turned off the power and then checked it with a voltage tester. It was still hot. It turns out that box was powered from more than one breaker. For obvious reasons, that is against code. One breaker supplied just that plug, the other breaker supplied 5 others. It was easy to split the circuit. Now the TV has its own breaker, and the other five has the second.
I have a good story about a set of faulty circuit breakers in the house, but I will save that to be its own post.
While this was wired to meet the National Electrical Code, it is still a terrible way to install electrical outlets. The way your outlet was wired is that ALL of the downstream outlets current draw is going through your crispy outlet. The nasty side effect of wiring outlets this way is that if you have a problem with one outlet, them all of the downstream outlets get FUBARed.I have been finding electrical issues in this place since I moved in. My wife was living here when I met her. She says that there were electrical problems (mostly breakers tripping) since she moved in and the builder had to come back a few times to rewire things.
The proper way to wire outlets is to install pigtails so that current for downstream outlets goes through the pigtail connection and not through the outlet. The outlet is, so to speak, off to the side and out of the main roadway.
As terrible as your outlet installation is, it still could have been worse. Imagine your outlet being wired the way it is but instead of using the side screws they used the notorious “back stab” holes in the back of the outlet. These back holes are notorious for the internal spring to lose its springiness over time and the wire connection becomes wonky. Again, all of the downstream outlets get FUBARed.
More good news; all of the other outlets in your house were wired the same way.
Now I was an electrician for six years in the Navy. One of the things that I was always fond of telling my subordinates is that a fuse blowing or breaker tripping isn't a problem, it is a symptom of a problem.
Here are a few of the problems that I have discovered since I moved in:
The most recent one was the fire. I rewired that receptacle with pigtails and wire nuts. The problem that caused it was that the electrician who installed power for the hot tub simply tapped it off of the same circuit as the plug that just failed. Not technically an overload, the hot tub should still be on its own circuit. The good news is that I have wanted to convert the tub to 220v, but the wife didn't want to spend the money. She is OK with it now, and the electrician will be out this afternoon. I could do it myself, but this job looks like a PITA with the way that the wire has to be run, so I will pay someone the money to do it.
A few months ago, I did a project where I mounted the TV on the wall. While doing that, I had to install a plug in the wall 5 feet off the floor. I intended to just tap off of the plug that was below that spot. I turned off the power and then checked it with a voltage tester. It was still hot. It turns out that box was powered from more than one breaker. For obvious reasons, that is against code. One breaker supplied just that plug, the other breaker supplied 5 others. It was easy to split the circuit. Now the TV has its own breaker, and the other five has the second.
I have a good story about a set of faulty circuit breakers in the house, but I will save that to be its own post.
Wednesday, May 13, 2020
Stats on coronavirus to back up posts
In 14 states, more than half of Wuhan virus deaths occurred from COVID infections acquired in nursing homes.
In New York, 70 percent of deaths are people over 65; in Michigan, 79 percent; in Washington State, 92 percent. In Delaware, 58 percent of deaths have been nursing-home residents and their caregivers. In Massachusetts, 55 percent; in Pennsylvania, 51 percent; New Jersey, 40 percent.
Again, it seems to me that if we lock down those over 65, nursing homes, and establish a wing of the hospital for those over 65 and refuse visitation in that wing, we could control this virus to levels lower than the flu.
In New York, 70 percent of deaths are people over 65; in Michigan, 79 percent; in Washington State, 92 percent. In Delaware, 58 percent of deaths have been nursing-home residents and their caregivers. In Massachusetts, 55 percent; in Pennsylvania, 51 percent; New Jersey, 40 percent.
Again, it seems to me that if we lock down those over 65, nursing homes, and establish a wing of the hospital for those over 65 and refuse visitation in that wing, we could control this virus to levels lower than the flu.
Fear is more contagious than the Wuhan Virus
According to the Centers for Disease Control, 58 people in the U.S. between ages 0-24 have died from COVID-19 as of May 6. As tragic as that is, for comparison, 250 people in the same age group have died this year from pneumonia and 126 from the flu, but our nation doesn't close down those non-COVID cases. As I have been saying, fear is contagious:
The entire US has had about 1.3 million confirmed cases and 82,200 deaths. A six percent fatality rate would be rough, but remember that the total confirmed cases is not a valid number.
New York metro area was hit the hardest with 490,000 cases and 36,000 deaths to date, which represent more than a third of all cases and nearly half of all Wuhan related deaths for the entire country. In fact, DNA sequencing of the virus has shown that New York was the source of most of the infections in the US.
During crucial weeks in March, New York’s political leaders waited to take aggressive action, even after identifying hundreds of cases, giving the virus a head start. And by mid-March, when President Trump restricted travel from Europe, the restrictions were essentially pointless, as the disease was already spreading widely within the country. Just as the restrictions are pointless now.
Anyone who reads this blog knows that I have been, and remain, a staunch advocate for taking the Wuhan virus seriously. In that same discussion, I said:
No one should accept this lockdown as "the new normal." Even New York City is not having many new cases lately. At its peak, the virus was claiming 800 lives a day in New York City alone, but the last few days show that the danger is receding. On Monday, the entire state of New York had 410 deaths. The data we have at this time simply doesn't warrant maintaining a total lockdown. Of course, the pandemic is a fluid situation and things could change for better or worse in the coming months. Aesop, who is advocating an indefinite lockdown, has this to say:
It is easy for those in the health professions, those who are essential, and others who don't need to work to sit there and demand that everyone else starve so they can continue to live in their homes in fear of getting a virus with a survival rate of at least 95%.
Jennifer Nuzzo, an epidemiologist at Johns Hopkins University's Bloomberg School of Public Health, said
Perhaps the lockdown can be lifted, beginning with the sparsely populated counties and states. We could restrict access to nursing homes and hospitals, with screening of visitors. What the country should do is offer people a choice: For those who are afraid to be exposed, those people should stay home.
The rest of us need to get back to work.
Sound reasonable? If so, contact your local school officials today.
Note:
The problem with Aesop and his blog is that he has gotten a boner for every deadly disease outbreak for the better part of a decade. When Ebola came to the US in 2014, the guy was practically salivating at the thought of the disease killing thousands. He has this macabre fascination with disease that we see here in Florida with people who get excited every time a hurricane comes within a thousand miles of the state.
This panic illustrates the real hazard with nCOV 19. The real hazard is fear induced panic, and the people demanding that the government (or the medical field) do something. It doesn't matter if the something that is being done is actually effective- just that they are doing something. We see this all of the time, which is the reason why we have to suffer through the Kabuki Theater of security everywhere.Over 92% of the people who have died in the US are over the age of 65, and more than half live in nursing homes. When I pointed this out over at Aesop's place, he resorted to emotional argument:
What's your point? Are older people expendable by fiat? Where is that principle in the Constitution, state law, or common law...? Should we also crash test cars with old people? Use them to clear minefields?We can argue and quibble over things like infection rate and death rate, but the numbers aren't there. Ignoring projections, which are as accurate as the ones declaring Hillary would be President, or that Hurricane Dorian was going to wipe out the state of Florida, the real numbers have been less than scary.
The entire US has had about 1.3 million confirmed cases and 82,200 deaths. A six percent fatality rate would be rough, but remember that the total confirmed cases is not a valid number.
New York metro area was hit the hardest with 490,000 cases and 36,000 deaths to date, which represent more than a third of all cases and nearly half of all Wuhan related deaths for the entire country. In fact, DNA sequencing of the virus has shown that New York was the source of most of the infections in the US.
During crucial weeks in March, New York’s political leaders waited to take aggressive action, even after identifying hundreds of cases, giving the virus a head start. And by mid-March, when President Trump restricted travel from Europe, the restrictions were essentially pointless, as the disease was already spreading widely within the country. Just as the restrictions are pointless now.
Anyone who reads this blog knows that I have been, and remain, a staunch advocate for taking the Wuhan virus seriously. In that same discussion, I said:
If you want to debate whether or not shutting down the economy is a wise method of preventing the spread of the virus, that's one thing, but denying the existence or deadly nature of it is pure bullshit.It's time to have that discussion. The facts are showing us a few things:
- New York caught the brunt of it, with other major cities seeing a lot of cases, but there appears to be some reasons for that related to population density.
- Nursing homes also appear to be a focus, probably because of the fragile population and the fact that they are so close to each other.
- The younger a person is, the safer they are.
No one should accept this lockdown as "the new normal." Even New York City is not having many new cases lately. At its peak, the virus was claiming 800 lives a day in New York City alone, but the last few days show that the danger is receding. On Monday, the entire state of New York had 410 deaths. The data we have at this time simply doesn't warrant maintaining a total lockdown. Of course, the pandemic is a fluid situation and things could change for better or worse in the coming months. Aesop, who is advocating an indefinite lockdown, has this to say:
Flattening the spread of COVID-19 using lockdowns allows health systems to cope with the disease, which then permits a resumption of economic activity. In this sense, there is no trade-off between saving lives and saving livelihoods.He is wrong, because there is, of course, a trade-off. The Wuhan virus has caused a lockdown of most of the countries that drive the world economy. The projection is for the world economy to recede by 3%, down from 6.3% annual growth. In other words, the global economy shrank ten percent from its pre-lockdown levels. This means a cumulative loss of over $9 trillion over the next two years.
It is easy for those in the health professions, those who are essential, and others who don't need to work to sit there and demand that everyone else starve so they can continue to live in their homes in fear of getting a virus with a survival rate of at least 95%.
Jennifer Nuzzo, an epidemiologist at Johns Hopkins University's Bloomberg School of Public Health, said
The decision to reopen schools cannot be made based solely on trying to prevent transmission. I think we have to take a holistic view of the impact of school closures on kids and our families. I do worry at some point, the accumulated harms from the measures may exceed the harm to the kids from the virus.The same goes for the rest of the country, not just the schools. We can't let the cure be worse than the disease. If people don't speak up and demand that the country reopen, that's likely what will happen — regardless if a resurgence of the virus takes place or not. The stark reality is that the Wuhan virus may be with us indefinitely, just like the seasonal flu, and we must adapt to it rather than revamping the entire U.S. economy.
Perhaps the lockdown can be lifted, beginning with the sparsely populated counties and states. We could restrict access to nursing homes and hospitals, with screening of visitors. What the country should do is offer people a choice: For those who are afraid to be exposed, those people should stay home.
The rest of us need to get back to work.
Sound reasonable? If so, contact your local school officials today.
Note:
The problem with Aesop and his blog is that he has gotten a boner for every deadly disease outbreak for the better part of a decade. When Ebola came to the US in 2014, the guy was practically salivating at the thought of the disease killing thousands. He has this macabre fascination with disease that we see here in Florida with people who get excited every time a hurricane comes within a thousand miles of the state.
Tuesday, May 12, 2020
Statistics
In order for a statistical analysis of a set of numbers to take place, there are a few things that must be done.
The data set must be random. If it isn't, you suffer from selection bias. For example, if all of a person's friends tell them that they were going to vote for HRC, they would have been surprised that Trump won the election. This is because their sample wasn't random.
The sample must also be large enough to be significant. When measuring a large data set or population, like a workforce, you don’t always need to collect information from every member of that population – a sample does the job just as well. The trick is to determine the right size for a sample to be accurate. Using proportion and standard deviation methods, you are able to accurately determine the right sample size you need to make your data collection statistically significant.
When studying a new, untested variable in a population, your proportion equations might need to rely on certain assumptions. However, these assumptions might be completely inaccurate. This error is then passed along to your sample size determination and then onto the rest of your statistical data analysis.
That is what is happening now to statistical analysis of Wuhan virus numbers. We have a data set that tells us how many people had the disease at the time of testing. There are a couple of assumptions there that are making those numbers worthless.
The state of Florida thinks that since they have tested a large percentage of the state that they can predict what will happen. The numbers we have now cannot be used for a statistical analysis because they are not random. We are also assuming that the people who tested negative didn't get it later, and didn't have it earlier. This makes it impossible to determine the CFR.
The data set must be random. If it isn't, you suffer from selection bias. For example, if all of a person's friends tell them that they were going to vote for HRC, they would have been surprised that Trump won the election. This is because their sample wasn't random.
The sample must also be large enough to be significant. When measuring a large data set or population, like a workforce, you don’t always need to collect information from every member of that population – a sample does the job just as well. The trick is to determine the right size for a sample to be accurate. Using proportion and standard deviation methods, you are able to accurately determine the right sample size you need to make your data collection statistically significant.
When studying a new, untested variable in a population, your proportion equations might need to rely on certain assumptions. However, these assumptions might be completely inaccurate. This error is then passed along to your sample size determination and then onto the rest of your statistical data analysis.
That is what is happening now to statistical analysis of Wuhan virus numbers. We have a data set that tells us how many people had the disease at the time of testing. There are a couple of assumptions there that are making those numbers worthless.
- We didn't test people at all before we were aware of the Wuhan virus. So we have no idea how many people had it, or what the outcome of their case was.
- The people who were tested at first were only tested if they had been travelling to certain countries, so people who had the disease and had not traveled recently were not part of the data set.
- The people who were tested didn't have the Wuhan V on the day they were tested. That doesn't mean that had not already had it months before, nor does it mean that they didn't get it days or weeks later.
The state of Florida thinks that since they have tested a large percentage of the state that they can predict what will happen. The numbers we have now cannot be used for a statistical analysis because they are not random. We are also assuming that the people who tested negative didn't get it later, and didn't have it earlier. This makes it impossible to determine the CFR.
House Fire
Last night, my wife reported hearing a buzzing noise, but I couldn't find anything. This morning while enjoying our quarantine breakfast, we smelled burning plastic. Smelled electrical to me. I began looking around, and poked at an electrical outlet. That is when flames shot out of the wall. The fire is out, and there is some electrical work that needs to be done. Not much damage, and everyone is OK.
Good thing we were quarantined at home to catch it while it was small. Had we been at work, the fire could have been bad.
Good thing we were quarantined at home to catch it while it was small. Had we been at work, the fire could have been bad.
Sunday, May 10, 2020
Saturday, May 9, 2020
Lure them in to the foolish zone
All you have to do to get people into the ambush zone is let them see something that will cause them to act in a predictable way. This one went perfectly: The guy who staged it made them look like idiots.
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