“Unhappy it is, though, to reflect that a brother’s sword has been sheathed in a brother’s breast and that the once-happy plains of America are either to be drenched with blood or inhabited by slaves. Sad alternative! But can a virtuous man hesitate in his choice?” - George Washington, 1777
Monday, September 21, 2020
Science, it's a thing
Just listen to the scientists, they say.
Believe in science, they keep telling us.
How are we supposed to do that when the science changes every three days?
I'd like to see the actual studies on airborne transmission of COVID; historically, VERY few diseases have a significant airborne vector - and most of those involve someone very sick coughing LOTS of material on somebody very close. And if there IS a significant airborne component to it, then we need REAL mask guidance instead of this nonsense that any random scrap of fabric is acceptable.
The crazy flip flopping of the CDC is compounded by the way they act like there's no relevant science to this virus except whatever they pronounce. Scientists have been studying the spread of respiratory viruses for as long as they've been aware of the existence of viruses. There's no reason this coronavirus should be different from other coronaviruses or even influenza viruses in how it spreads. Until shown otherwise. In other words, it's fine to study and see if there are differences, but until there's solid evidence, why throw out a century's worth of science?
They go back and forth about masks, but there have been more than a dozen good quality Randomized Controlled Trials done in the past that show no substantial effect of good masks, let alone the little cloth things people are wearing. Karl Denninger at the Market Ticker can be hard to read but he has dug out some studies that really make you shake your head. The UK's NHS did RCTs where they had surgeons not wear masks to see if patient infections went up. Infections went down - presumably something to do with the air flow being different between wearing a mask and not - and when patients did get infections, their bacteria did NOT match swabs from the surgeons or OR staff.
Pournelle's Iron Law tells you of the dedicated, good scientists in the CDC which ones are running the show. When the head of the CDC says wearing a mask is more valuable than a vaccine, it's a virtual certainty he's wrong.
I'd like to see the actual studies on airborne transmission of COVID; historically, VERY few diseases have a significant airborne vector - and most of those involve someone very sick coughing LOTS of material on somebody very close.
ReplyDeleteAnd if there IS a significant airborne component to it, then we need REAL mask guidance instead of this nonsense that any random scrap of fabric is acceptable.
https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/7/20-0764_article
DeleteThe crazy flip flopping of the CDC is compounded by the way they act like there's no relevant science to this virus except whatever they pronounce. Scientists have been studying the spread of respiratory viruses for as long as they've been aware of the existence of viruses. There's no reason this coronavirus should be different from other coronaviruses or even influenza viruses in how it spreads. Until shown otherwise. In other words, it's fine to study and see if there are differences, but until there's solid evidence, why throw out a century's worth of science?
ReplyDeleteThey go back and forth about masks, but there have been more than a dozen good quality Randomized Controlled Trials done in the past that show no substantial effect of good masks, let alone the little cloth things people are wearing. Karl Denninger at the Market Ticker can be hard to read but he has dug out some studies that really make you shake your head. The UK's NHS did RCTs where they had surgeons not wear masks to see if patient infections went up. Infections went down - presumably something to do with the air flow being different between wearing a mask and not - and when patients did get infections, their bacteria did NOT match swabs from the surgeons or OR staff.
Pournelle's Iron Law tells you of the dedicated, good scientists in the CDC which ones are running the show. When the head of the CDC says wearing a mask is more valuable than a vaccine, it's a virtual certainty he's wrong.